A Harvard Medical School-led analysis, published November 11, 2026, suggests that US pressure on Germany to raise medicine prices could increase spending in both countries rather than lower US costs.
In the modeled scenario, a 25% rise in German drug prices would add about $6.2 billion (€5.5 billion) a year to spending by Germany’s statutory health insurance system. US Medicaid spending would also rise by about $300 million, as higher German prices could affect the international benchmarks used in US pricing policy.
The dispute is tied to the US “most-favored-nation” approach, which links some US drug payments to prices in other countries. Researchers say higher German prices would weaken projected US savings, while imposing much larger costs on Germany.
The study was commissioned by Germany’s National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds. Its findings are estimates based on a modeled price increase, not a prediction that Germany will necessarily raise prices.
Sources:
Analysis suggests US bid to increase German drug prices will increase costs for both
Drug price hikes in Germany could push US costs higher, ...
US Push for Higher German Drug Prices Would Backfire, ...
Why is the US targeting Germany's drug industry?
Study: U.S. push to raise German drug prices backfires
Drug price hikes in Germany could cost health insurers extra $6.2 billion annually, study finds
US Push for Higher German Drug Prices Would Backfire, Study Says
Pharma: Studie sieht nur Nachteile durch US-Pläne für deutsche Medikamente
Drug Pricing in Germany in the Crosshairs of the United ...
Industry News and Analysis | FirstWord PHARMA
US officials head to Berlin for drug pricing talks
Drug Pricing News | BioPharma Dive
Comments to USTR Regarding Its Section 301 ...
Drug Pricing in Germany in the Crosshairs of the United States