Trump claims credit for falling drug prices, but Biden-era Medicare negotiations likely played a major role

Recent reports say U.S. prescription-drug prices fell 0.8% in July and 3.1% year over year—the sharpest annual decline since 1963.

The Trump administration attributed the drop to its agreements with drugmakers, “most favored nation” pricing efforts, and the TrumpRx direct-to-consumer discount site.

Drug-pricing experts cautioned that the main driver may instead be the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, signed by President Joe Biden.

That law gave Medicare authority to negotiate prices for certain high-cost drugs. The first negotiated prices for 10 medications—including several widely used treatments—took effect in January 2026, with discounts ranging from 38% to 79% off earlier list prices.

Other factors may also be contributing, including the shift from brand-name drugs to generics. Trump’s initiatives could affect some cash prices, but the July data do not establish that his policies caused the overall decline.

The political dispute centers on timing:
Trump can point to prices falling during his administration, while Biden’s law created the Medicare-negotiation mechanism and was enacted years before the reported decline.