Pharma R&D internal rate of return (IRR) rose to 7% in 2025 from 5.9% in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of improvement, primarily driven by GLP-1 drugs for obesity and diabetes.123
Obesity assets now account for 25% of the projected value of the late-stage pharma pipeline, overtaking oncology (20%) for the first time in 16 years; in 2022, obesity was just 1%.123
GLP-1 assets represent 38% of projected commercial inflows from the 2025 late-stage pipeline, but excluding them drops IRR to 2.9%, highlighting underlying R&D productivity issues.123
Average drug development cost increased to $2.67 billion in 2025 from $2.23 billion in 2024, while average peak sales per asset rose to $598 million, largely due to GLP-1s.123
Obesity treatments like Mounjaro ($35.8B) and Wegovy ($35.6B) surpassed Keytruda ($31.5B) in sales last year, signaling a shift from cancer to obesity therapies.4
Sources:
1. https://pharmaphorum.com/news/seismic-shift-obesity-overtakes-cancer-rd-returns
2. https://trial.medpath.com/news/glp-1-drugs-drive-pharma-r-d-returns-to-7-as-obesity-overtakes-oncology-in-pipeline-value
3. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/weight-loss-drugs-gains-lift-pharma-rd-returns-but-bubble-risk-grows-302760859.html
4. https://www.chosun.com/english/industry-en/2026/01/28/CWRUAAPLERH5FMLSZMBQ3AZE6I/